Disaggregated Components of Public Debt and Economic Growth of Pakistan

  • Imran Farooq University of Antwerp, Belgium
  • Muhammad Akram International Islamic University Islamabad, Pakistan
  • Chakar Khan International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan
  • Syed Rizwan Ali Shah University of Balochistan, Quetta, Pakistan
Keywords: External and Domestic Debt, Debt Sustainability Ratios, Real GDP growth rate and ARDL Model

Abstract

Purpose

This study analyze the impact of the disaggregated components of Public debt and its servicing on the economic growth of Pakistan. More specifically, the domestic debt components are Floating Debt, Unfunded Debt and Permanent Debt, and external debt components are Multilateral Debt, Paris Club Debt, and Bilateral Debt.

Approach and Methodology

The data has been collected from 1976 to 2021 from World Bank Indicators and Statistics department of SBP and Pakistan Economic Survey Reports. ARDL model is employed on the Karagol Model (2002).  

Findings

The finding as; the floating, unfunded multilateral, bilateral  debt’s component and debt servicing impact negatively on the economic growth of Pakistan except Paris Club debt and Permanent debt.

Policy Recommendations            

The recommendation of using Permanent Debt among domestic debt components and Paris Club Debt as of external debt components despite using other components of public debt

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Article Analytics Summary

Author Biographies

Imran Farooq, University of Antwerp, Belgium

PhD Scholar at IOB, University of Antwerp, Belgium, and National Savings Officer at National Savings, Ministry of Finance, Islamabad, Pakistan

Muhammad Akram, International Islamic University Islamabad, Pakistan

Assistant Professor, International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University Islamabad, Pakistan

Chakar Khan, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan

PhD Scholar, Faculty of Management Sciences, International Islamic University, Islamabad, and Lecturer Sub-Campus Mastung, University of Balochistan, Quetta, Pakistan

Syed Rizwan Ali Shah, University of Balochistan, Quetta, Pakistan

MPhil Scholar, University of Balochistan, Quetta and Junior National Saving Officer, National Savings, Ministry of Finance, Islamabad, Pakistan

References

Abbas, S. M. (2007). Ali and J Christensen (2007), The Role of Domestic Debt Markets in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Low-Income Countries and Emerging Markets. IMF Working Papers, (07/127). DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451866919.001

Ahmad, E., (2011). A Qualitative Analysis of Pakistan’s External and Internal Debt. The Lahore Journal of Economics 16: 123-157. DOI: https://doi.org/10.35536/lje.2011.v16.isp.a6

Akram, N. (2011). Impact of Public Debt on the economic growth of Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 599-615. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30541/v50i4IIpp.599-615

Ali, R., & Mustafa, U. (2012). External debt accumulation and its impact on economic growth in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 79-95. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30541/v51i4IIpp.79-96

Ali, S., Ali, A., and Amin A. (2013). The Impact of Population Growth on Economic Development in Pakistan, Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research 18 (4): 483-491.

Arnone, M., Bandiera, L., & Presbitero, A. F. (2005). External debt sustainability: Theory and empirical evidence. Catholic University of Piacenza Economics Working Paper, 33.

Atique. R and Malik. K., (2012). Impact of Domestic and External Debt on the Economic Growth of Pakistan. World Applied Sciences Journal 20 (1), 120-129.

Banerjee, A., Dolado, J., & Mestre, R. (1998). Error‐correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single‐equation framework. Journal of time series analysis, 19(3), 267-283. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00091

Benedict, R. Bhattacharya and T. Q. Nguyen (2003). External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries, IMF Working Paper WP 03(249). DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451875904.001

Burnside, C. and D. Dollar (2000), Aid, policies, and growth, American Economic Review, 90, 847–868. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.4.847

Charles, O. (2012). Domestic Debt and the Growth of Nigerian economy. Research journal of finance and accounting, 3(5), 45-56.

Chowdhury, A. (2001). External debt and growth in developing countries: a sensitivity and causal analysis. WIDER-Discussion Papers.

Cunningham, R. T. (1993). The effects of debt burden on economic growth in heavily indebted developing nations. Journal of economic development, 18(1), 115-126.

Elbadawi, I., Ndulu, B. J., & Ndung’u, N. (1997). Debt overhang and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. External finance for low-income countries, Washington, DC, IMF: 49-76.

Fischer, S. and Easterly, W. (1990): “The Economics of the Government Budget Constraint”. The World Bank Research Observer, 5(2), pp 127-42. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/5.2.127

Fosu, A. K. (1996) The Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Economic Development 93–118.

Frimpong, J. M., & Oteng-Abayie, E. F. (2006). The impact of external debt on economic growth in Ghana: A Cointegration Analysis. Journal of Science and Technology (Ghana), 26(3), 122-131. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4314/just.v26i3.33013

Hasan, A., & Butt, S. (2008). Role of trade, external debt, labor force and education in economic growth empirical evidence from Pakistan by using ARDL approach. European Journal of Scientific Research, 20(4), 852-862.

Ikechi. K., Akujinma., A. F., and Ibeawuchi., O,J. (2014). The Impact of Disaggregate Components of External Debt on the Economic Development of Nigeria (1969-2011). Research Journal of Finance and Accounting 5(10).

Kappagoda, N. (2007, March). Debt Sustainability Framework for low-income countries. In Workshop on Debt, Finance and Emerging Issues in Financial Integration, London, 7.

Karagol, E. (2002): “The Causality Analysis of External Debt Service and GNP:” The Case of Turkey”, Central Bank Review pp 39-64.

Kemal, A. R. (2001). Debt accumulation and its implications for growth and poverty. The Pakistan Development Review, 40(4), 263-281. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30541/v40i4Ipp.263-281

Khan, A., Rauf, A., Haq, M., and Anwar, N., (2016). The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth of Pakistan. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 5 (2): 2226-3624. DOI: https://doi.org/10.6007/IJAREMS/v5-i2/2211

Levy, A., & Chowdhury, K. (1993). An integrative analysis of external debt, capital accumulation and production in Latin America, Asia-Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Economics and Finance, 17(3), 105-119. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02920034

Lyoha, Milton A (1999). External debt and economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries: An econometric study. African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), Nairobi, Paper 90.

Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 5(4), 63-91.

Paudel, R. C., & Perera, N. (2009). Foreign debt, trade openness, labor force and economic growth: Evidence from Sri Lanka. The ICFAI Journal of Applied Economics, 8 (1), 57-64.

Peck, F. J., & Abbas, Q. (2008). Human capital in economic growth: Pakistan, 1960-2003. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 13 (1), 1-27. DOI: https://doi.org/10.35536/lje.2008.v13.i1.a1

PES (2014-15), Pakistan Economic Survey, Ministry of Finance, Islamabad.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616

Rais, S. I., & Anwar, T. (2012). Public debt and economic growth in Pakistan: A time series analysis from 1972 to 2010. Academic research international, 2(1), 535.

Ramzan, M., & Ahmad, E. (2014). External debt growth nexus: Role of macroeconomic policies. Economic Modelling, 38, 204-210. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.12.014

Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a Time of Debt (No. w15639). National Bureau of Economic Research. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w15639

SBP (2021). Handbook of Statistics on Pakistan Economy.

Schclarek, A. (2004). Debt and Economic Growth in Developing Industrial Countries, mimeo, available on-line http://www.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP05_34.pdf

Shabbir, S. (2013). Does external debt affect economic growth: Evidence from developing countries (No. 63). State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.

Smyth, D. J., & Hsing, Y. (1995). In search of an optimal debt ratio for economic growth. Contemporary Economic Policy, 13(4), 51-59. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00731.x

Umaru, A., Hamidu, A., and Musa, S., (2013). External Debt and Domestic Debt Impact on the Growth of the Nigerian Economy, International J. Educational Research 1 (2).

WBI (2021). Interest payment (% of revenue), Data. Interest payment (% of export), Data. Interest payment (% of GDP), Data. Inflation, consumer prices (annual %), Data. Government expenditure on education, total (% of GDP), Population growth (annual %), Data. Trade (% of GDP), Data.

Published
2023-09-30
How to Cite
Farooq, I., Akram, M., Khan, C., & Shah, S. R. A. (2023). Disaggregated Components of Public Debt and Economic Growth of Pakistan. Journal of Business and Social Review in Emerging Economies, 9(3), 191-202. https://doi.org/10.26710/jbsee.v9i3.2701